Over the summer, my twelve-year-old son proclaimed that he was going to be the world's first zillionair! I had to explain to him that if he achieved that lofty goal he would be the only one because that is more capital than exists today; unless he meant Zimbabwean dollars. I suggested that long before he owned the whole planet there might be a few objections here and there.
This got me thinking about my pal Warren, a frequent topic of conversation in business and investment circles, and how he amassed such a great fortune over the past five decades.
He is a long way from owning the world but he has started to expand his horizons to the international scene. He has bought and sold PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) for a tidy $4 billion dollar profit and he has been hedging against the dollar for the last few years with mixed results. He bought an Israeli metal fabricator and he has splashed about in Europe and Asia.
If you read Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.B) annual reports you will find the chairmans letters, where Buffett discusses both his successes and his failures. It is his failures and the fact that he does not make the right call every time that I wish to draw attention today. BloggingStocks promotes much debate, sometimes name calling, and sometimes worse. However, it is important to understand that even the best investors make mistakes.
The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts says, "While stocks in the equipment and services group tend to move with oil prices in the near term, their profits depend more on exploration spending than on commodity prices."
"Concerns about slowing demand for crude oil and re?ned products both in the U.S. and overseas have many investors worried. But investors in the equipment and services group should not panic.
"Most producers continue to spend aggressively. And U.S. crude-oil inventories remain well below the average for this time of year, with fewer than 20 days of supply in storage.
"Demand for offshore-drilling services remains strong, giving Transocean excellent growth potential. Consensus estimates project per-share profits will rise 69% in 2008 and 15% in 2009. Transocean, the world's largest offshore drilling contractor, operates in every major drilling region.
"A combination of tight global rig supplies and the ongoing discovery of new offshore reserves have driven rig lease rates higher and kept Transocean's fleet busy. The company's largest, most expensive rigs are 95% sold out for 2009, and the backlog is growing.
"Whenever anyone asks, 'Why invest in China?' the answer is very simple: that's where the money is, and it's where exponential future economic growth is also," says Jim Trippon.
The editor of The China Stock Digest then asks, "Will China suffers an Oympic hangover?" Here, he explains why that should not happen and offers a look at China Mobile (NYSE: CHL), which he calls the "top dog" in the Chinese wireless sector.
"The Bank of China (BOC) conducted a study of the effects of 12 Olympiads on their host countries over the course of 60 years. They found that nine of the twelve Olympic host countries suffered a decline in GDP growth in the eight years after the games.
"The key to a post Olympic slump is the size of the economy. Smaller economies like Korea suffered larger downturns after the games, while larger economies like the United States were not affected at all. In smaller economies the enormous investment dedicated to staging Olympic games created an artiļ¬cial bubble which was followed by a slump when Olympic building booms came to an end.
"China has made one of the largest investments ever in the Olympic Games with some estimates of spending topping $40 billion. But we don't believe the capital city will go into a slump after the games.
Kendle International (NASDAQ: KNDL) provides a range of clinical development services to the biopharmaceutical industry. Offerings include clinical trial management, clinical data management, statistical analysis, medical writing, regulatory consulting and publication services. The company has expertise in a range of therapeutic areas, including oncology, cardiovascular disease, inflammation and central nervous system disorders. Kendle's Early Stage segment focuses on Phase I operations. The Late Stage unit handles Phase II through IV clinical trials, regulatory affairs, and biometrics offerings. Covance (NYSE: CVD) and Parexel International (NASDAQ: PRXL) are major competitors.
The firm surprised the Street earlier in the month, when it reported Q2 EPS of 52 cents and revenues of $127 million. Analysts had been looking for 46 cents and $115.3 million. The EPS figure was a company record. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $2.00-$2.15 ($1.90 consensus) and FY08 revenues to $490-$500 million ($468.76M consensus). Ladenburg Thalmann subsequently reiterated its "buy" recommendation and boosted its price target to $51.
"WuXi PharmaTech (Cayman) Inc. (NYSE: WX) provides laboratory and manufacturing services for the drug and medical device R&D process," notes China stock specialist Jim Trippon.
In his The China Stock Digest, he explains, "Because Chinese researchers receive much smaller paychecks than their Western counterparts, Shanghai-based WuXi is able to lower the cost of this research." Here's his review.
"We have often heard major Western pharmaceutical companies complain of the extraordinary cost of discovering and developing drugs.
"More costly than the laboratory infrastructure is the burden of paying for armies of highly trained, highly paid chemists, researchers, analysts and physicians. WuXi has become the secret weapon of many big name global pharmaceutical companies.
"China educates tens of thousands of engineers, chemists and technologists, and outsourcing that expertise has become a growth industry. WuXi became a leader in this trend in 2000 and has gone on to attract an impressive roster of clients.
"The firm's senior management team consists of Ph.D.s and MBAs with experience in drug and medical device R&D. Wuxi management has more than 200 patents pending or granted, and has published more than 800 scientific publications.
The first major economic act of presidential hopeful Barack Obama will be to add Hillary Clinton to the lower half of the democratic ticket. If he does not, he will be throwing caution to the wind.
All indications are that he does not want to do this and hopes he will not have to -- but he may not have any choice.
It is just good business and if he is too stubborn, too arrogant, or just misguided by favorable polling numbers, he should think again. There are many Hillary supporters who will find McCain more centrist than Obama and switch parties. There will be very few, if any, to the right of McCain who will vote for Obama. They are more likely to not vote than support Obama.
Adding Hillary Clinton, in most people's eyes, will slam dunk the presidential race and if Obama does not make this tough decision, putting success in front of politics and personalities, then I am afraid all his talk of being able to stand up to special interests and take the heat in the kitchen is just that.
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
Six of the eight did well and two did not, and of course one of those two was a disaster. Among the losers, I do not think anyone is fretting about UPS, which is still one of the few triple-A rated companies along with Berkshire Hathaway. It has been well reported that the slowing economy and higher fuel prices have been the major culprits affecting UPS's earnings. In the case of WaMu, it's demise has also been well reported, but at the time I recommended it WaMu had a stellar reputation of growth and high yield for over two decades. There is no hiding, it turned out to be a lousy pick and an ANTI-SAFE Haven
Washington Mutual(NYSE: WM) closed Monday at $4.21 down from $45.50; a 98% loss.
Fortunately the remaining six picks have done very, very well. If you had bought the pool, the average gain over the last two years would have been 7.14%. Adding the dividends over the two years would have raised this to 13.14%.
In an exciting bit of news for early adopters north of the border, the new BlackBerry Bold smartphone from Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) is slated to hit Canadian shelves this Thursday, August 21. Because RIMM has signed service pacts with various wireless carriers in different regions, the Bold is being rolled out gradually around the globe. The snappy new device has already launched in Germany, but U.S. carrier AT&T (NYSE: T) is so far keeping mum about its plans for the Bold's Stateside debut.
The latest addition to the CrackBerry family is aimed toward business users; as proof, even Rupert Murdoch is getting in on the act. The Wall Street Journal Digital Network announced today that it's launched a new mobile application to provide immediate access to headlines in the WSJ family of financial publications (including Barron's, MarketWatch, and All Things Digital). The application is available for free on most BlackBerry smartphones.
Naturally, the Bold has already garnered comparisons to Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone -- but there are a few notable differences. While Jobs & Co. are slowly trying to make headway into the corporate world, their core audience is still top-heavy with tech-gadget completists and trust-fund hipsters. Meanwhile, BlackBerry's already in business with business, and the new WSJ app is just an extra boost of its Street cred.
"Around the globe, wind-generating capacity has been expanding at a rapid 30% clip in recent years," notes value investor Nathan Slaughter, who adds, "And 2008 is already shaping up to be even better."
The editor of Half-Priced Stocks looks at industrial product firm Trinity Industries (NYSE: TRN), explaining, "The company's most promising division is involved in the production of structural wind towers." Here's the advisor's of the latest addition to his "deep-discount' model portfolio.
"Led by states such as Texas and California, wind farms around the country will generate almost 50 billion kilowatt hours of electricity this year. Of course, the U.S. is still playing catch-up with many other regions.
"In fact, countries such as Spain, Portugal and Denmark all rely on wind farms for as much as one-quarter of their total power needs. Across Europe, wind turbines will account for roughly one-third of all new generating capacity installed over the next few years and could provide electricity for 90 million people by 2010.
"The outlook is even brighter in many booming, energy-hungry Asian markets. In China, installed wind power capacity surged +130% last year and will reportedly supply a great deal of the electricity needed for the upcoming 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.
"Thanks to the great strides in engineering, wind turbine output has increased by a factor of ten (or higher in some cases) over the past decade.
Fuqi International (NASDAQ: FUQI) designs, develops and sells precious metal jewelry in the People's Republic of China. It offers rings, bracelets, necklaces, earrings and pendants made from such precious metals as platinum, gold, palladium and karat gold. The company also manufactures jewelry with diamonds and other precious stone inlays, as well as gold coins and gold bars. Fuqi International was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Shenzhen.
The firm surprised the Street last week, when it reported Q2 EPS of 25 cents and revenues of $66.9 million. The Street had been looking for 20 cents and $62.8 million. Management also guided Q3 EPS to 26-27 cents (21 cent Street), Q3 revenues to $75-$77 million ($70.6M Street), FY08 EPS to $1.07-$1.09 ($1.08 Street) and FY08 revenues to $325-$333 million ($314.2M Street).
"Stericycle (NASDAQ SRCL) is a near-monopoly in an essential but unglamorous area, making its an excellent investment in an uncertain economy," says growth stock expert Dave Dyer.
In his Dave Dyer's Newsletter, he states, "If you have something that is dangerous, contaminated, or nasty, and you want it to go away safely, you can rely on SRCL, the leader in medical waste."
"I first recommended the stock almost a year ago, but there is so much good news that I thought this would be a good time to recommend it again.
"And while the stock's 12.4% gain since last August is not spectacular, the S&P 500 is down 14.1% over the same time period -- so SRCL has outperformed the market by a wide margin.
"SRCL is North America's largest provider of medical waste services. In fact, if a major customer wants to contract with a single customer for nationwide services, SRCL is the only choice. Even if the market has not really bottomed out, this is an excellent stock to consider because its business is almost entirely immune to economic cycles.
Reporting on the daily appreciation of MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) over the last few weeks has made me feel like a play-by-play announcer. One comment in an earlier post on MBIA raked me over the coals for writing when the stock was up 26%, only a few days after I suggested readers take a look at some crushed financials in Serious Money: Tempting fate with 10 financials. He did this even though on the day he commented it was up by 74%.
I was just reporting the jump but the reader took me to task for bragging when nothing should be judged so quickly, and my previous financial calls were bad. Well, MBIA has now leaped from $4.92 three weeks ago to $11.22 at Friday's close for a gain of 126%. This is BIG news even if it happened quickly -- in particular because it happened quickly.
The reasons may be numerous. Perhaps it is a combination of company stock buybacks and short covering. Perhaps it is the periodic comments in Barron's about the value of the company based on its current book of business and the fact it needs no new business to be profitable. In its last earnings report, MBIA did suprise to the upside substantially. Last Friday was certainly related to the fact that it was taken off the watch-list for the next three months as the ratings agencies supported MBIA's rating of AA.
Update: Final, closed up to $11.83, $0.61, (+ 5.44%). MBIA stands at $140% gain.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of MBI.
"AAPL and RIMM are both pushing all of the other manufactures to the sidelines. It's clear that RIMM's BlackBerry is the dominating force in the corporate smartphone market, but the Apple iPhone has shaken things up quite a bit on the consumer side.
"The combination of the new Apple model flying off the shelves, and rumors of a postponement for one of RIMM's new releases, has raised questions among some analysts as to RIMM's ability to fight back.
"Research in Motion may be planning to release several new smartphones this year, including the KickStart, the Thunder and the already announced Bold.
BWAY Holding Company (NYSE: BWY), headquartered in Atlanta, is a leading North American manufacturer and distributor of metal and rigid plastic containers for the industrial and consumer products markets. The Metal Packaging segment specializes in steel paint cans, aerosol cans, pails and ammunition boxes. The Plastics Packaging unit provides injection-molded and blow-molded bottles and drums for petroleum products, agricultural chemicals, paints, inks, edible oils, adhesives and sealants. The ICL Industrial Containers division is Canada's leading supplier of plastic and steel pails. Ball Corporation (NYSE: BLL) and Crown Holdings (NYSE: CCK) are major competitors.
The firm surprised the Street last week, when it reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 41 cents and revenues of $274 million. Analysts had been looking for 28 cents and $271.6 million. In discussing the successful quarter, the CEO noted increased productivity, better cost containment and the effects of new products. Management also guided FY08 EPS to 70-75 cents, versus Street consensus of 53 cents.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lower gas prices mean the numbers are too low.
People are missing this retail move. They are missing it because the market is deciding right now that the guidance companies are giving is just plain wrong given the $3.50 at the pump (although premium's a lot more expensive). They are also recognizing that the strong are surviving and thriving and taking share in a radical fashion -- witness Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) (Cramer's Take), which must be killing Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD) (Cramer's Take) and the mom-and-pop shops out there.
When I met with Lowe's last year, they told me that they have picked up share in every downturn. They did not know when the downturn would end or when you would see the results, but they were confident that the longer the downturn lasted, the more likely they would be to have pulled away from their competition.
Over the summer, my twelve-year-old son proclaimed that he was going to be the world's first zillionair! I had to explain to him that if he achieved that lofty goal he would be the only one because that is more capital than exists today; unless he meant Zimbabwean dollars. I suggested that long before he owned the whole planet there might be a few objections here and there.
The first major economic act of presidential hopeful Barack Obama will be to add Hillary Clinton to the lower half of the democratic ticket. If he does not, he will be throwing caution to the wind.
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
In an exciting bit of news for early adopters north of the border, the new BlackBerry Bold smartphone from 
"Around the globe, wind-generating capacity has been expanding at a rapid 30% clip in recent years," notes value investor 
Reporting on the daily appreciation of 
"
"The combination of the new Apple model flying off the shelves, and rumors of a postponement for one of RIMM's new releases, has raised questions among some analysts as to RIMM's ability to fight back. 
Slow approach to raising bank capital loses the race against write-offs
Cramer on BloggingStocks: The SEC's waffling will be deadly
How Fannie and Freddie will fail
