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Early analyst calls (FCX) (NVS) (AIG)

JP Morgan downgraded Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to "neutral" from "overweight", according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup added Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX) to its "Top Picks" list.

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) Started as Sell at Societe Generale, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial site Limelight Networks (NASDAQ: LLNW) Raised to Buy at Jefferies.

Amgen (AMGN): Share price defines bullish 'pennant' formation

Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) is a biotechnology firm engaged in the discovery and manufacture of human therapeutics. It markets products in the areas of supportive cancer care, nephrology, inflammation, and metabolic diseases. Principal offerings include anemia treatments Aranesp and Epogen, rheumatoid arthritis drug Enbrel, and white blood cell stimulator Neupogen. Amgen has marketing alliances with Hoffmann-La Roche and Kirin. Baxter International (NYSE: BAX), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Novartis (NYSE: NVS) and major competitors.

The company pleased the Street late last month, when it announced Phase 3 trial results showing that its experimental osteoporosis drug significantly reduced the risk of bone fractures in post-menopausal women. As well, the firm reported Q2 EPS of $1.14 and revenues of $3.76 billion. Both measures topped consensus Street estimates ($1.02, $3.58 billion). Management also guided FY08 EPS to $4.25-$4.45 ($4.19 consensus) and FY08 revenues to $14.6-$14.9 billion ($14.42B consensus). Eight brokerages subsequently declared AMGN a "buy" and issued price targets in the range $67-$80.

Continue reading Amgen (AMGN): Share price defines bullish 'pennant' formation

Before the bell: SI, ODP, GM, F, NVS, AAPL

Before the bell: Futures lower ahead of Bernanke speech, Alcoa; Indymac plunges

Industrial conglomerate Siemens AG (NYSE: SI) said Tuesday it would cut 16,750 jobs, or 4.2% of its global work force of 400,000 people. Most of the cuts would be administrative jobs. Siemens is attempting to cut nearly $2 billion in costs by 2010 as a slowing economy is affecting its business.

Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) shares are sinking 13.5% in premarket trading after the office-supplies retailer said that "pressure from weakening business conditions" has hurt second-quarter sales, and forecast a nearly 10% drop in second-quarter North American same-store retail sales.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Ford (NYSE: F) shares are declining 1.5% and 2.2% respectively in premarket trading despite reporting strong first-half sales in China, where the auto market is booming. GM said sales of its brands rose 12.7%, and Ford said its sales rose 21%.

Continue reading Before the bell: SI, ODP, GM, F, NVS, AAPL

Novartis (NVS): Big Pharma's best pipeline

"The pipelines of most Big Pharmas are bone dry; last year, the FDA approved the lowest number of new drugs (19) since 1983," notes Louis Basenese, editor of The Oxford Club.

"But opportunity always lurks in the wreckage, and one Big Pharma, in particular, is being unfairly punished." Here's his bullish outlook on Novartis (NYSE: NVS).

"Unlike others in the sector, Novartis doesn't suffer from an empty pipeline. It's launched more drugs globally than any other firm in the past seven years. It has more than 100 projects in phase II (or later) trials. And it expects to file at least six new drug applications this year alone.

"Plus, its products cover all bases, from vaccines to specialized drugs to generics to eye-care products, even animal health items. And most are enjoying rapidly expanding sales.

"Moreover, the company maintains a fortress-like financial position that includes a $10.8 billion cash horde. Management keeps raising the dividend, for 11 years and counting. And it recently announced a massive $9 billion stock-repurchase plan, too. Hardly the hallmarks of a sickly stock.

Continue reading Novartis (NVS): Big Pharma's best pipeline

Before the bell: DB, GM, AAPL, AZN

Before the bell: Futures higher on SBUX, YHOO, ahead of inventory report

Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) shares are trading 4.2% higher in premarket action after the bank, seeking to calm investors, said it expects a profit in its second quarter.

While AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) unveiled its pricing strategy for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s 3G iPhone to go on sale July 11 with a $199 and $299 (with contract) price points as expected, Canadians are outraged over Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE: RCI)'s 3G iPhone rates and have created an online petition that collected over 19,000 signatures already.

AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) rose in Europe and is rising over 2.7% in premarket trading after winning a court case against Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) and the Sandoz unit of Novartis (NYSE: NVS) over patents on its Seroquel schizophrenia drug.

A day after car sales were seen as "not as bad as expected," comes Merrill Lynch and downgrades General Motors (NYSE: GM). Shares are down over 3% in premarket trading.

Trade idea for Novartis (NVS) upgrade

NVS logoNovartis (NYSE: NVS) shares are trading higher today after an analyst at BNP Paribas upgraded the stock to "Neutral" from "Underperform," saying that Novartis was the "surprise winner" at a recent oncology conference. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVS.

After hitting a one-year high of $59.17 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.19 in April. NVS opened this morning at $53.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $53.06 and a high of $53.83. As of 12:10, NVS is trading at $53.51, up $1.92 (3.7%). The chart for NVS looks neutral but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in four months as long as NVS is above $45 at October expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 15% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Trade idea for Novartis (NVS) upgrade

Analyst downgrades: LZ, BMRN and NVS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lubrizol, BioMarin Pharmaceutical and Novartis were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Jefferies downgraded shares of Lubrizol (NYSE:LZ) to Hold from Buy as they expect persistent raw material cost pressures to limit upside over the next few quarters. The firm lowered their target price to $60 from $65.
  • Citigroup cut BioMarin (NASDAQ:BMRN) to Hold from Buy after their survey indicated an upside surprise from the Kuvan launch is unlikely. The firm lowered their target price to $37 from $42.
  • HSBC downgraded shares of Novartis (NYSE:NVS) to Underweight from Neutral following the company's stake in Alcon (NYSE:ACL) as they believe it dilutes the company's return on assets.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

40 best stocks to retire rich on, shoppers beware of shrinking products & top-earning celebrities - Today in Money 6/12

In the News:

Retire Rich: Best Stocks to Retire On
FORTUNE's trademark long-term portfolio can help put you on the road to a secure future. They include Abbott Labs, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Cisco, 3M, Walgreen, Cascade, Novaratis and Vodafone to name a few of the 40 stocks on FORTUNE's list.
Fortune 40: Best stocks to retire on - FORTUNE

Shoppers Beware: Products Shrink, But Prices Remain the Same

There's a reason why the tub of ice cream you bought last week looks a tad smaller than ones you bought last summer. It is. Many major ice cream makers, hit by higher dairy costs, have shrunk their standard containers to 1.5 quarts from 1.75 quarts, about 1 cup less. As packaged goods makers' costs rise, they eventually have just two choices: raise prices or put less stuff in the package. While most are trying a price boost first, a growing number are shrinking the contents of their packages -- from Frito Lay's chips to Dial soap to Dreyer's ice cream. Other shrinking products include Hellmann's mayo down to 30 oz. from 32 oz., Cheerios & Wheaties have shrunk 1.5oz., Bounty papertowels down to 60 from 52 towels and more.
Shoppers beware: Products shrink but prices stay the same - USATODAY.com

Continue reading 40 best stocks to retire rich on, shoppers beware of shrinking products & top-earning celebrities - Today in Money 6/12

Before the bell: AAPL, BAC, WB, YHOO, NVS, GM ...

Before the bell: Stocks head for lower open, again

Well, with this latest deal, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has all but confirmed what the next iPhone will be. Japanese mobile-phone operator Softbank Corp. said Wednesday that it reached an agreement with Apple to sell its iPhones by the end of the year. Japan has 103 million sophisticated mobile users, already paying up for high-tech phones. So far, speculation was that Apple will close a deal with NTT DoCoMo, but Softbanks it is. The phone will likely support 3G networks.

Merrill Lynch cut its price target to $27 from $28 for Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), saying Countrywide Financial's cumulative losses are likely to rise to between $10 billion and $12 billion, causing writedowns for its buyer and being a big EPS drag. It kept its Underperform rating for the stock.

While BofA paid $4 billion for Countrywide, Wachovia (NYSE: WB) paid $25 billion for Golden West Financial, which turned out to be a disastrous acquisition.

Continue reading Before the bell: AAPL, BAC, WB, YHOO, NVS, GM ...

Pre-market movers: GM, NVS, WB ...

Acorda Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ACOR) shares are up 18% on news of positive drug trials.

GM (NYSE: GM) is up over 4% after a positive article in Barrons.

Novartis (NYSE: NVS) is up almost 4% on news that one of it cancer drugs has new applications.

Harris Bank (NYSE: HRS) is up 3% on comments by its CEO that the bank is not for sale.

Wachovia (NYSE: WB) is off over 3% on news that it has fired its CEO.

Stocks may trade differently in the pre-market than they do in the regular session.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247walls.com.

Early analyst calls

RBC downgraded Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) to "sector perform" from "outperform," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports Morgan Stanley downgraded LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) to "equal weight" from "overweight."

Novartis (NYSE: NVS) was started as "overweight" at JPMorgan, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial site also reports that Weyerhaeuser (NYSE: WY) was cut to "hold " at Deutsche Bank.

Can cancer drugs help pharma sales?

Almost everyone these days has encountered cancer in one way or another. While the rate of cancer incidence has stabilized to declined since the early 1990s and, with newer and better treatments as well as early detection, cancer death rates have also declined, the war on cancer is still far from won.

It is no surprise, then, that a few days ago, IMS Health (NYSE: RX) -- a provider of market intelligence to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries -- said that cancer drugs sales will nearly double by the year 2012. Assuming a compound growth rate of 12-15% a year, sales will grow from $48 billion in 2008 to $80 billion by 2012.

The main contributors to growth, according to the study, are an increasing number of patients on chemotherapy, not just in major markets but in emerging markets, too, as well as longer treatment periods for growing numbers of patients. Also fueling growth are the increased use of targeted therapeutic agents, along with first-time innovations coming to the market. Expensive new biotechnology drugs, and the increasing use of combination therapies that contribute to the exploding cost of treatment will also fuel cancer drugs sales growth.

The overall pharmaceutical market grew at a 6.4% pace in 2007, meaning that with its double-digit growth rate, the cancer drug market -- today contributing 17% to global pharmaceutical sales -- will only represent a greater proportion and emphasis. Of course, there will be factors moderating growth, such as drugs losing exclusivity and financial constraints of payers.

Cancer-fighting drugs can reach the market twice as fast as the average medicine, and companies can charge as much as $50,000 for a single course of treatment. It is no surprise then that with more and more drugs coming off patent many pharma companies are turning their attention to cancer. But can it save them?

Continue reading Can cancer drugs help pharma sales?

Novartis (NVS) blood-pressure drug well-received

NVS logoNovartis (NYSE: NVS) shares are trading higher today after the company announced that its high blood pressure drug Tecturna HCT works twice as well as the previous treatment. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVS.

After hitting a one-year high of $59.17 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.19 in April. NVS opened this morning at $50.96. So far today the stock has hit a low of $50.74 and a high of $51.10. As of 12:10, NVS is trading at $50.95, up 0.82 (1.6%). The chart for NVS looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $45 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just two months as long as NVS is above $45 at July expiration. Novartis would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

NVS hasn't been below $46 at all in the past year and has shown support around $50 recently. This trade could be risky if one of the company's drugs gets into trouble with the FDA, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $46, where it bottomed out about a month ago.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NVS.

Analyst upgrades: LINC, SONS and NVS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lincoln Educational, Sonus Networks and Novartis were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Lehman upgraded Lincoln Educational (NASDAQ: LINC) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on improving student enrollment growth and valuation.
  • Merriman upgraded Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) to Buy from Neutral on the company's strong AT&T (NYSE: T) outlook and near-term upside potential from Japan. They believe shares can trade towards the $5-$6 range.
  • Bernstein raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe the company's diversification position it well to withstand future generic expiries.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Battle of the Brands: Tylenol vs. Excedrin

This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

Tylenol is probably the most recognizable brand name for the pain reliever acetaminophen. In addition to being a pain reliever, Tylenol also reduces fevers. It was created in 1955 as Tylenol Elixir for children, and was the first aspirin-free pain reliever. It was initially available only by prescription, but became available without a prescription in 1960.

The product is made and marketed by McNeil Consumer Healthcare, a brand owned by Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Tylenol falls within the Consumer segment of J&J, which had sales of $14.5 billion in 2007. Over-the-counter pharmaceuticals represented $5.1 billion in sales, or 35% of the segment's sales.

Excedrin is a pain reliever that combines acetaminophen, aspirin, and caffeine. (Caffeine is known to enhance the effectiveness of aspirin and acetaminophen.) It's a product of Novartis (NYSE: NVS), a Switzerland-based company that bought the Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) consumer medicine business in 2005. Novartis produces a variety of consumer health care products, with 2007 revenue of $39.8 billion.

Continue reading Battle of the Brands: Tylenol vs. Excedrin

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-10.9111,337.64
NASDAQ-9.122,375.24
S&P 500-2.221,264.47

Last updated: August 20, 2008: 02:40 PM

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