As if pouring salt on a wound, Moody's came out today and cut the rating of luxury home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) to junk status. Their rating was cut to Ba1 from Baa3.
As reported in a Bloomberg report, Moody's said: " While the company is one of the only remaining home builders that is currently generating earnings before impairment charges, Moody's does not expect this to continue, as falling prices and lower absorption rates continue to impact margins."
Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll has recently told the market that he thinks that real estate is still in a downward spiral. It seems that Moody's agrees. While this all maybe true, for long term investors, shares in Toll Brothers are certainly intriguing under $19. Long term, contrarian inclined investors may want to do a bit of research as the shares maybe approaching levels that are hard to refuse.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/3/08.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Tower sector stocks, Tesco Plc and Alcoa were today's noteworthy upgrades:
RBC Capital upgraded American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Crown Castle( NYSE::CCI), SBAComm (NASDAQ:SBAC) to Outperform from Sector Perform citing recent weakness in the tower sector group and a continued favorable outlook.
Merrill upgraded shares of Tesco (Other OTC:TSCDY) to Buy from Neutral as they believe it is the only proven growth stock in the sector.
Soleil upgraded shares of Alcoa (NYSE:AA) to Hold from Sell on valuation following the recent weakness.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Data Domain, ESCO Technologies and NetApp were today's noteworthy initiations:
ThinkPanmure said Data Domain's (NASDAQ:DDUP) installed base, strong product, technology lead, and partner network provides a sustainable competitive advantage in the high-growth market for capacity-optimized data storage powered by de-duplication software. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $30 target.
Friedman Billings expects ESCO Tech's (NYSE:ESE) utility solutions segment to drive sales growth as secular demand for advanced metering gains traction. The firm started shares with an Outperform rating and $60 target.
Merriman initiated NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) with a Neutral rating. The firm is cautious on the name as the company seeks to reaccelerate top-line growth in a challenging economic environment in North America.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Citizens Comm (NYSE:CZN) was assumed with a Buy rating and $13 target at Stanford.
R.H. Donnelley (NYSE:RHD) was initiated at JP Morgan with a Neutral rating.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: ExxonMobil, Susquehanna and BJ's Wholesale were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Bernstein upgraded shares of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) to Outperform from Market Perform to reflect the company's best of industry returns and high credit rating, which they feel makes for a safe investment in the current environment.
Keefe Bruyette upgraded shares of Susquehanna (NASDAQ: SUSQ) to Market Perform from Underperform on valuation and believes the company is unlikely to have to raise capital.
JP Morgan raised BJ's Wholesale (NYSE: BJ) to Overweight from Neutral citing improvement in the company's ability to convert free trial customers to paid members and strong June sales, which could result in EPS upside for Q2-Q4.
OTHER UPGRADES:
J.M. Smucker (NYSE: SJM) was lifted to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Concur Tech, Groupe Danone and General Motors were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Piper downgraded shares of Concur Tech (NASDAQ: CNQR) to Neutral from Buy after transferring analyst coverage, as they believe potential upside to estimates is priced into shares while competitive concerns from American Express (NYSE: AXP) are not.
Morgan Stanley downgraded shares of Groupe Danone (OTC: GDNNY) to Equal Weight from Overweight to reflect reduced visibility in the company's core business.
Merrill downgraded General Motors (NYSE: GM) to Underperform from Buy citing the company's deteriorating US auto sales, resulting in a higher cash burn, which could result in a larger than expected capital raise. The firm believes GM capital raise could be in the range of $15 billion and notes that bankruptcy is "not impossible."
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Progenics Pharma (NASDAQ: PGNX) was lowered to Underperform from Market Perform at Friedman Billings.
UAL Corp. (NASDAQ: UAUA) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Goldman.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Telefonica, Affymax and Hatteras Financial were today's noteworthy initiations:
Deutsche Bank initiated Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) with a Buy rating and believes concerns of an economic slowdown in Spain are overdone and that company is on track to make 2008 guidance.
Baird assumed coverage of Affymax (NADAQ: AFFY) with an Outperform rating and $25 target. The firm believes the market has discounted the regulatory and commercial prospects of lead compound Hematide, which they believe is a $800M revenue opportunity, and recommends buying shares aggressively in the mid-$20s.
Shares of Hatteras Financial (NYSE: HTS) were started with an Outperform rating and $35 target at Friedman Billings. The firm believes management has the opportunity to stabilize its agency portfolio and generate a return on invested capital of about 20%.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Caris assumed OmniVision (NASDAQ: OVTI) with a Buy rating and $15 target.
Pioneer Natural (NYSE: PXD) was initiated at UBS with a Buy rating and $110 target.
UBS also initiated CME Group (NYSE: CME) with a Neutral rating and $430 target.
Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD) was assumed with a Buy rating and $14.40 target at Merrill Lynch.
It is reasonable to believe that as the cost of crude rises, demand will fall. It is in the Economics 101 textbooks. It has to to be true.
Not so, says The International Energy Agency. According toThe New York Times, the think tank says "the small decline in oil demand in the industrialized countries will be more than offset by an estimated increase in demand of 3.7 percent a year from 2008 to 2013 in developing countries, particularly in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America."
The argument has the benefit of making sense. Asia, especially China, cannot keep up its GDP growth without gas to drive its transportation industry. It has cut the amount it provides to underwrite the price of diesel and gas, but it has not eliminated the practice. Driving a car or truck on the mainland is still cheap.
In the Middle East and Latin America, many of the countries are net exporters of crude. Brazil recently claimed that it found one of the largest oil deposits ever discovered. The field are just off its coast in the ocean. Many of the nations with excess oil will keep some of that at home to build their own infrastructures.
Oil prices are staying high whether the US can afford that or not.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) shares are trading 4.2% higher in premarket action after the bank, seeking to calm investors, said it expects a profit in its second quarter.
While AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) unveiled its pricing strategy for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s 3G iPhone to go on sale July 11 with a $199 and $299 (with contract) price points as expected, Canadians are outraged over Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE: RCI)'s 3G iPhone rates and have created an online petition that collected over 19,000 signatures already.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) rose in Europe and is rising over 2.7% in premarket trading after winning a court case against Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) and the Sandoz unit of Novartis (NYSE: NVS) over patents on its Seroquel schizophrenia drug.
Celgene Biopharma (NASDAQ: CELG) shares are trading higher today after an analyst on CNBC's Fast Money recommended the stock last night, adding that the company could be getting some good news related to the development of its Lymphoma treatment soon. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on CELG.
After hitting a one-year high of $75.44 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $41.26 in December. CELG opened this morning at $65.90. So far today the stock has hit a low of $65.16 and a high of $66.93. As of 12:50, CELG is trading at $66.73, up $2.86 (4.4%). The chart for CELG looks bearish and improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) Buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just seven weeks as long as CELG is above $55 at August expiration. Celgene would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lehman Brothers, Nokia and Intuitive Surgical were today's noteworthy initiations:
Morgan Stanley initiated Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) with an Overweight rating and $31 target. The firm believes Lehman's discount to book value prices in significant write-downs.
Bernstein believes Nokia (NYSE:NOK) will see a slowdown in demand for devices and could loss market share. Shares were initiated with an Underperform rating.
Merriman assumed Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) with a Neutral rating and believes the tightened credit markets could impact capital equipment spending for small and mid-sized hospitals. They find shares appropriately valued at current levels.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: McClatchy News, Ansys and Fortune Brands were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of McClatchy (NYSE:MNI) to Sell from Hold after transferring analyst coverage as they believe leverage issues will continue to pressure the stock.
Jefferies downgraded shares of Ansys (NASDAQ:ANSS) to Hold from Buy on valuation and their belief that a slow U.S. manufacturing economy may be impacting sales cycles at the margin.
Fortune Brands (NYSE:FO) was lowered to Market Perform from OUtperform at Wachovia following its lowered 2008 outlook.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Lam Research, Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Credit Suisse upgraded Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) to Outperform from Neutral citing margin expansion and valuation. Lam was named the firm's top pick in SCE names for 2H08.
JP Morgan upgraded shares of Deutsche Telekom (NYSE:DT) to Overweight from Neutral as they expect a stronger second half of the year for the industry.
France Telecom (NYSE:FTE) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale after the company walked away without bidding for Sweden's TeliaSonera.
After hitting a one-year high of $21.51 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $13.65 in March. TWX opened this morning at $14.59. So far today the stock has hit a low of $14.46 and a high of $14.79. As of 12:30, TWX is trading at $14.69, up 27 cents(1.9%). The chart for TWX looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $13 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 12.5 % return in just four months as long as TWX is above $13 at October expiration. Time Warner would have to fall by more than 11% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
TWX hasn't been below $13.65 at all in the past year and has shown support around $14 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 8/6) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $14, where it bottomed out in March. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TWX.
It was only last week that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) caused havoc in the stock market (or at least lead the charge) downgrading Citigroup Inc.(NYSE: C), and General Motors (NYSE: GM) among others, but now they have started to express concern that some of the defense sector stocks may be vulnerable to the next president's ax.
It was only a few weeks ago I posted Chasing Value: General Dynamics & Raytheon: The defense does not rest and things continued to look bright until a few days later, perhaps after the GS behind the scenes warning started to have an impact on the market that the sector took a mysterious swoon -- now I know why.
If Goldman Sachs, one of the few investment houses with any credibility left, makes a move everyone else seems to want to get out of the way.
I have viewed the defense sector favorably this year and will not abandon ship because GS is getting cold feet. They have been rather negative on everything lately and I do not think the (stock) world is coming to an end.
The Bloomberg article notes that while some programs will be cut others will be added. It is all a guessing game as either presidential candidate will want to review the entirety of defense expenditures in a new administration.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of GD.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Symantec, Cardinal Financial and BP Plc were today's noteworthy upgrades:
ThinkPanmure upgraded Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) to Buy from Accumulate based on improved execution, stable growth in core business, and ramping competitive position in some high-growth businesses.
Baird upgraded Cardinal Financial (NASDAQ:CFNL) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, the company's favorable credit risk profile in Northern Virginia, and its excess capital position.
Societe Generale raised BP Plc (NYSE: BP) to Hold from Sell as it believes the bad news is priced into shares and earnings could be better than expected.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) was upgraded at Merrill Lynch to Neutral from Underperform.
Jefferies lifted Hunsman (NYSE: HUN) to Hold from Underperform.
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