Posted Aug 20th 2008 10:30AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, PepsiCo (PEP), Campbell Soup (CPB), Hershey Co (HSY), General Mills (GIS), Kraft Foods'A' (KFT)
Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), famous maker of thick-and-rich ketchups and other foodstuffs, is due to report first-quarter results on Thursday. So, what might be in store for the company? Are we looking at a lot of growth for the bottom line?
Well, according to Earnings.com, analysts aren't looking for much growth at all. Last year at this time, Heinz served up 63 cents per share. Wall Street seems to be looking for three measly pennies of growth! Can Heinz beat the 66 cents per share that analysts believe it will report?
Looking at some past price history, I can't say that I'm overly optimistic that Heinz will beat the expectations by too much (if it beats at all, that is). Remember that consumer-products companies are having one heck of a time with inflation. Raising prices is key to survival, but those higher price-tags must be accepted by the consumer base.
Increased marketing spending also is important during times like these since many businesses want to see if they can capture some market share while the competition is hurting.
So investors will want to carefully evaluate the margins and volume of sales when Heinz issues its earnings release. This has been par for the course for businesses such as Hershey (NYSE: HSY), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), and General Mills (NYSE: GIS).
Continue reading Earnings preview: Will Heinz have a rich quarter?
Posted Aug 19th 2008 8:20AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Deals, Electronic Arts (ERTS), Activision Inc (ATVI)
Can you believe the drama going on between Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) has dragged on for this long? I can't. According to this article, EA has let its current bid expire and intends on checking out additional stats behind the company in an effort to think more about what Take-Two has to offer and what its true value might be. The company behind the Grand Theft Auto series of mature-rated games is offering to give EA a presentation that includes non-public data.
EA really wants this deal. So does Take-Two. EA believes that it needs a super-franchise that goes beyond its sports dominance, and it feels that Grand Theft Auto would be one heck of an asset to own. It's true. EA would probably benefit from the title, and it might get the company's stock out of its current doldrums. And in a world where Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) is benefiting greatly from an acquisition and a merger -- Guitar Hero and Vivendi Games, respectively -- one cannot blame EA, I suppose, for keeping the dream alive.
EA is in something of a bad spot because, at this point, it probably will have to raise the bid on Take-Two. I think the market will ultimately be disappointed if EA doesn't get Grand Theft Auto (and BioShock, for that matter). It will be perceived as a failure on management's part, and shareholders will wonder where the growth will be coming from, and what catalysts can be counted on to drive the stock price higher in this tough economic environment.
Continue reading Will Electronic Arts ever take Take-Two?
Posted Aug 18th 2008 11:56AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Time Warner (TWX), Viacom (VIA), Sony Corp ADR (SNE), News Corp'B' (NWS), Film, Marvel Entertainment (MVL)
Has Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Tropic Thunder succeeded where the Joker has failed? Has the film beaten Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight? According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, it has. Can you believe it? Tropic Thunder, which stars Ben Stiller, right now has $26 million to its credit, enough to capture the top spot. That number will change most likely when final tallies are in, but it doesn't matter, since The Dark Knight is believed to have taken in a little under $17 million over the three-day weekend at domestic multiplexes, giving it a second-place finish. This is good news for shareholders of Viacom, who have so far been pretty happy with the studio's successful summer output. Box-office hits like Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man have powered the media company.
Now, Time Warner's new animated flick, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, actually did worse than I expected. It came in third with $15 million. I admit, I totally misread this one. Believe it or not, I thought the film might do a huge number, like between $40 million and $50 million. I'm not sure the box-office dynamics at this time of year would have supported a statistic like that for this kind of film. And I guess I overestimated the number of geeks out there who were waiting to see it during the first weekend out. I really blew it on that one. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) horror flick Mirrors came in fourth place, while Pineapple Express, distributed by Sony (NYSE: SNE), came in fifth. I saw Express last week. Cool movie.
Continue reading Ben Stiller finally bests Batman
Posted Aug 16th 2008 12:40PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Estee Lauder (EL), Revlon (REV), Avon Products (AVP)
Estee Lauder (NYSE: EL), whose colleagues include Avon Products (NYSE: AVP) and Revlon (NYSE: REV), ended the week on a great note. The stock rallied to a new 52-week high of $52.04 on Friday during the intraday session, and closed only several cents below that price at the end of the day. The catalyst for this stellar stock performance can be traced to the beauty company's earnings report, which was released earlier in the week.
According to SmartMoney, Estee Lauder saw top-line growth of 14% during the company's fiscal fourth quarter, with revenues coming in at roughly $2 billion. The bottom line increased 36% to $0.61 per share. Wall Street was only counting on $0.56 per share. So that's a nice $0.05 per share beat. The revenue number also went beyond expectations.
I like the results, and I like that Estee Lauder has been a particularly strong stock. According to the AOL Finance snapshot taken at the time of this writing, the stock has been up for every time frame (1-month, 1-year, etc.). Putting this fact together with the fundamental results of the quarter yields a situation that should be looked at. I don't like that gross margins declined, but I do find the stock appealing considering how bad the market has been.
Continue reading Estee Lauder looks interesting after making new 52-week high
Posted Aug 15th 2008 4:19PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Wal-Mart (WMT), Target Corp. (TGT), Kohl's Corp (KSS)
Kohl's Corporation (NYSE: KSS) is up over 7% as I write this. Wall Street is apparently infatuated by the company's Q2 numbers, issued on Thursday after the bell. On the surface, however, one might question why there's such an interest. After all, the top line increased only 4% and the bottom line actually decreased 7% to $0.77 per diluted share. And, more dishearteningly, same-store sales, a vital metric for retailers, fell well over 4%. In fact, for the six-month period, same-store sales declined well over 5%.
Here's what Wall Street seems to be thinking. The gross margin expanded from 38.9% to 39.6% in the quarter. In the six-month timeframe, the gross margin expanded from 37.9% to 38.2%. Also, management increased its earnings outlook for the fiscal year from a range of $2.95 to $3.15 per share to $3.02 to $3.18 per share. This guidance assumes declines in comps of between 2% and 4% for each of the next two quarters. Kohl's beat estimates by $0.04, according to Briefing.com. And cash from operations more than doubled over the last six months to roughly $874 million.
All of that is pretty impressive, so I guess I can understand the buying of the stock to some degree. I do see some things to be concerned about, though. While gross margins went up, operating margins went down. Plus, I don't like the declining comps in this case. And I have to wonder how the economy will treat Kohl's in the coming holiday season. I definitely wouldn't be in a rush to chase this stock, especially after the run-up today. As I've said in other pieces on retail investing, Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) are businesses I'd look at first in this sector. However, one thing I do have to concede is that the stock has been very strong lately, so there may be a case to be made for capturing some momentum here. Still, if I'm going for momentum, I might go with retail businesses that have stronger brand equities (in my opinion, at least).
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Posted Aug 15th 2008 11:00AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Sony Corp ADR (SNE), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Activision Inc (ATVI), Technology
No, you're not surprised. Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) moved the most video-game consoles in the U.S. in July. According to this Bloomberg article, which cites monthly data supplied by market-research firm NPD, gamers purchased over 550,000 Wii systems. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 was snapped up by almost 225,000 players, and Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 sold about 205,000 units.
There's no question about it now -- the Wii should dominate the holiday season. Momentum is behind the company's strategy of creating products that appeal to casual gamers. I'd be shocked if the fad all of a sudden burned itself out, although Douglas McIntyre did write recently about the possibility of Nintendo running out of steam at some point. The Wii Fit exercise system was the second best-selling software title in July. That property is definitely helping drive Nintendo's fortunes.
In other software statistics, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) was number one with NCAA Football '09. Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI) came in third with its version of Guitar Hero for the Nintendo DS handheld unit. EA should come out on top again next month since the new iteration of its Madden franchise came out earlier this week. There was a lot of excitement over that game, as there traditionally is every summer.
Continue reading It was a hot July for Nintendo -- worth watching the stock?
Posted Aug 14th 2008 8:41AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Centex Corp (CTX), Lennar Corp'A' (LEN), Toll Brothers (TOL)
Are you waiting for the malaise in the housing market to finally lift? Of course you are, who isn't? I can't wait for the day when headline news suddenly turns unambiguously positive. And I can't wait for the day when the market as a whole decides to anticipate it. For now, though, we've still got sour data to contend with. According to this article, famous luxury home-builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), whose competitors include Centex (NYSE: CTX) and Lennar (NYSE: LEN), reported preliminary results for the third quarter on Wednesday that showed a big decrease in home-building revenues. They decreased 34%, coming in at roughly $796 million. Seems par for the course, all things considered.
But there are more declines. Backlog orders decreased over 50%, and net signed contracts took a dive of 35% (both of these metrics are in dollar terms). The company is also issuing write-downs that will fall somewhere between $100 million and $200 million. Depressing stats, but according to the company press release, CEO Robert I. Toll believes that there is pent-up demand lurking out there in the marketplace for homes and he used the fact that total cancellations were down during the quarter as a tool for positive spin. Plus, the home-building revenue number did, in fact, beat estimates, according to Reuters. Does this make me want to run out and buy the stock?
No. Even though the stock has been strong in the last month, and even though it was up nearly 1% at the end of the trading session on Wednesday (a pretty nice showing on an otherwise overall downer of a day), I don't think I'm ready to initiate a position in Toll Brothers. I'd have to see a significant pullback in this one before my interest becomes piqued (some better economic news wouldn't hurt, either).
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Posted Aug 13th 2008 2:31PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Wal-Mart (WMT), Target Corp. (TGT)
Macy's (NYSE: M) didn't do too well in its second-quarter according to the earnings report, but it did beat profit expectations. Net revenues saw a decline of 3%, coming in at $5.7 billion. Adjusted net income from continuing operations was $0.29 per diluted share. According to this article, the call from the wizards of Wall Street was for $0.19 per share.
That's quite a beat, I'll grant you, but there are some caution signs investors must read regarding Macy's. As the article mentioned, the outlook isn't that great, and the retailer doesn't expect much from same-store sales as it goes into the autumn. In fact, sales should either be flat or will decline slightly. Same-store sales represent an important metric for retail chains, and if that metric can't be delivered, then investors need to take notice. For the quarter, comps were down a little over 2%. Over the last six months, comps were down by roughly the same amount.
Net cash provided by operating activities actually went up 44% to $592 million. The gross margin also improved. Cool stuff, perhaps, but they still don't change my bearish inclination toward the company. Macy's is still trying to turn itself around and become a player in retail, but it will be tough considering the economic challenges that the entire industry is currently facing. It's not going to be a strong holiday season for the company, and in terms of investment ideas, I'd still look at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) or Target (NYSE: TGT) in the retail sector. I don't see any reason to put money to work in Macy's (some do, though, since the stock is up almost 2% as I write this, and it has done very well over the last month, according to the AOL Finance snapshot).
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Posted Aug 13th 2008 9:09AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Microsoft (MSFT), International Business Machines (IBM), Applied Materials (AMAT)
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), a technology company that provides solutions to industries involved with such things as semiconductors, flat panel displays and solar photovoltaic cells, and whose colleagues include KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and LAM Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday.
They weren't great. The top line decreased by 28%, coming in at $1.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per diluted share dropped well over 50% to 17 cents. Although these numbers are horrible, it should be noted that the company at least beat estimates of 14 cents per share.
Well, not to be a downer or anything, but Applied Materials is not the tech stock I want to be in right now. It is suffering through a dismal economic environment, and the growth rates just don't look good. Not only do you have these year-over-year declines, but you've also got sequential-quarter statistics showing a negative trend. Plus, new orders are down significantly, and the gross margin took a dive.
Is there any saving grace to the report? Yes. Cash flow from operations was essentially flat over the nine-month timeframe at almost $1.6 billion. Hey, flat is better than a decline, correct?
Continue reading Applied Materials reports abysmal results -- not an interesting value play
Posted Aug 12th 2008 9:06AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Yahoo! (YHOO), Apple Inc (AAPL), Wal-Mart (WMT), Amazon.com (AMZN)
Napster (NASDAQ: NAPS), a digital-music-download entity that competes with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO), cued up its Q1 numbers on Monday after the bell. The top line decreased 6% to $30.3 million. The bottom line showed a net loss of 10 cents per diluted share, same as last year's results. In fact, the company lost a dime per share in the previous quarter. Must be something special about that number. Anyway, according to Briefing.com, Napster missed Wall Street estimates by one penny.
Gross margin for the quarter was flat at 27% when comparing to year-over-year data, but it did represent an increase over the 26% gross margin from the previous quarter. That's got to count for something, right? No, it doesn't. Neither does the press release's promotion of the new MP3 initiative. I could care less. Napster is an equity trading at a very low price, it's racking up losses, and it'll never become a serious threat to Apple and the iPod/iTunes empire. A good investment this is not.
The stock was down 10% in yesterday's after-hours session. I'm not sure where it will close in the regular session today, but Napster isn't where I want to be. There are better ideas out there, Apple certainly being one of them. I know that the stock snapshot shows it has been strong in the last month or so, but I'm not inclined to read too much into that in this particular case. For me, it's about stock price (too low) and brand equity (not powerful enough). Apple and iTunes sing a much better song than Napster, in my opinion...
[Editor's note: At 8:12 a.m. NAPS shares traded 2.7% higher]
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Posted Aug 11th 2008 3:36PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Mattel, Inc (MAT), Hasbro Inc (HAS)
4Kids Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: KDE), a licensing operation meant to target kids with various toys and potential fads, suffered through a terrible second quarter. The top line increased 37% to $16.5 million. Sounds pretty good so far, right? Yeah, then we get to the bottom line. The net loss was $0.42 per share. This compares to a net loss of $0.17 per share in the previous year's Q2. And what did Wall Street think the company was going to lose? About $0.23 per share, according to Earnings.com. I'd call that a rather bad shortfall.
The press release promoted the fact that the Chaotic trading-card asset is performing up to expectations. 4Kids is very hopeful that it can create momentum behind the cards and eventually turn them into another Pokemon or Yu-Gi-Oh! franchise. Maybe management can, maybe it can't. That's the problem with 4Kids. It's difficult to retain a desire to allocate investment funds into this stock since you can never really tell what product line is eventually going to win out for the company. It's a constant exercise in speculation. For instance, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles was weak this quarter compared to the year-ago period. Who knows if the property will be hot again two quarters from now. Going with a Hasbro, Inc. (NYSE: HAS), a Mattel, Inc. (NYSE: MAT), or a JAKKS Pacific (NASDAQ: JAKK) would probably make for safer sledding.
4Kids' stock is up slightly as I write, and it isn't far from its 52-week low. It isn't cheap, and it isn't a buy. This is the kind of stock you would definitely need to see some momentum strength in before buying. Otherwise, you'd be risking too much. Granted, the stock has been strong the last month or so, but considering today's earnings report, I'd need to see it get well over $10 per share before I'd take another look.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Posted Aug 11th 2008 11:11AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Time Warner (TWX), Walt Disney (DIS), Sony Corp ADR (SNE), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Film
Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Dark Knight will not rest. According to Boxofficemojo, the superhero flick finished in first place yet again over the weekend. It grossed an estimated $26 million at domestic theaters. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Pineapple Express put forth a valiant effort to beat the Bat, but it came up a little short. That film came in second with roughly $22 million for the three-day weekend. It debuted on Wednesday, and its total gross to date is around $40 million. Sony was smart in opening it early so that it might gain some positive word of mouth for the weekend. Any movie going up against Dark Knight needs whatever assist it can get. Seth Rogen and Judd Apatow are becoming quite the Hollywood kings of R-rated youth-targeted comedies, and Pineapple Express will only serve to further cement their dominion in Tinsel Town.
Coming in third was The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal. The fantasy flick took in $16 million and its total tally stands at $70 million. An okay performance, but nothing special. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 from Time Warner was in fourth place with a $10.7 million take. That wasn't too good for a film that I thought had a lot of buzz, but the budget on the project isn't too steep at under $30 million, so maybe this one will do all right. Sony's Step Brothers took hold of fifth position. Disney (NYSE: DIS) continues to do horribly with its bomb Swing Vote. It dropped to ninth place.
So Time Warner's studio division will have the success of The Dark Knight to look forward to in future quarters as the movie, which now has over $440 million to its credit, progresses through home video and other ancillary channels. Disney will not have anything to look forward to from Swing Vote. And here's something else for Time Warner: Star Wars: The Clone Wars opens August 15. Time Warner will bring the cartoon to the silver screen ahead of the animated TV series that is set to debut later on. I think Clone Wars will surprise everyone by doing better than expected. The merchandise from Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) is out in the marketplace now pushing George Lucas' new chapter in his famous franchise. May the Force be with the multiplex.
Disclosure: I own Disney and GE; positions can change at any time.
Posted Aug 10th 2008 11:10AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Walt Disney (DIS), Viacom (VIA), Sony Corp ADR (SNE), Comcast Cl'A' (CMCSA)
Lions Gate Entertainment's (NYSE: LGF) stock rose nearly 5% in after-hours trading on Friday after the movie studio issued its Q1 report. In fact, the stock hit $11 per share. What drove this reaction? Well, Wall Street was figuring on a loss for the company, somewhere around $0.05 per share, according to the AP. However, management fooled everyone by delivering a $0.06 per-share profit. Last year's Q1 saw a net loss of $0.45 per share. The top line was also awesome, rising 50% to $298.5 million. This also went beyond expectations.
These numbers are impressive to a certain extent. Management reported a nice backlog of revenues derived from movie projects that should be recognized in later quarters. There was a lower amount of expensed-costs related to distribution, an element that helped things out a great deal.
Cash flow, however, was an entirely different matter altogether. Lions Gate reported a much wider use of the green stuff this quarter. In fact, the metric more than doubled to nearly $150 million. Changes in working capital affected the cash flow, including increased investments in content productions and a larger booking of participations and residuals. Negative free cash flow also expanded, coming in at roughly $110 million this quarter versus $82 million one year ago.
Continue reading Lions Gate claws past expectations, but that doesn't mean its stock is a buy
Posted Aug 8th 2008 11:45AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Viacom (VIA), Activision Inc (ATVI)
Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) reported third-quarter earnings numbers on Thursday (for more earnings news, see here). Revenues increased a scant 5% to $848 million. The bottom line saw a net loss of 6 cents per share. According to Earnings.com, analysts were expecting a loss of 18 cents per share. So, expectations were soundly beat.
But should investors be completely enamored of the performance? There were some interesting growth rates sprinkled throughout the release. Indeed, digital revenues increased over 39%, and operating income from continuing operations jumped almost 11%. Free cash flow, as defined by the company (management adds back net cash paid or received for investments excluding short-term investments) soared 63% during the quarter, coming in at $93 million. However, during the nine-month period, free cash flow declined 47% to $37 million. Furthermore, net cash from operations decreased 1% and 6% for the third quarter and nine-month period, respectively.
In my opinion, investors should not be completely enamored of the performance. I see a mixed-bag here. I'd need to see some better long-term growth rates in the cash flow, and healthier top-line appreciation, to become intrigued. Warner Music obviously wants to leverage digital revenues as much as possible and adjust to the new landscape that the music business finds itself currently navigating. Interestingly enough, CEO Edgar Bronfman, Jr. is a bit angry at Activision Blizzard's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Rock Band music-gaming systems. According to this article, the CEO thinks that the song-licensing fees for the games are too low. This, of course, shows just how popular and significant music-gaming has become.
Continue reading Warner Music Group rocks the analysts, but is it a buy?
Posted Aug 8th 2008 11:10AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Earnings reports, Magazines, Internet, Media World
I get depressed whenever I read a Playboy Enterprises (NYSE: PLA) earnings report these days (see more of today's earnings news). I mean, sex sells, right? And one has to assume that Playboy has the best brand equity when it comes to selling sex, correct? Apparently not. Playboy's situation seems to be getting worse. The magazine is no longer the cool taboo it once was, the internet is killing it, and subscriptions and newsstand sales are fading. The magazine is arguably the driving heart of the brand. Without it, things will be rough. The numbers tell the tale.
For the second quarter, revenues declined over 14% to $73.4 million. The net loss was 6 cents per share. In the year-ago period, Playboy booked a 6 cents per-share profit. According to Briefing.com, revenue estimates were missed, as were expectations for earnings. In fact, Playboy missed by 11 cents! Not sexy at all.
All of the major operating segments saw declines in their top lines. Licensing increased its operating income by 9%. Publishing, believe it or not, actually narrowed its operating loss. Neither of these two positives is worth much in the grand scheme of things.
Continue reading Will Christie Hefner ever get Playboy's house in order?
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